tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1776 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:17 PHL 15:23 13% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 3090 American Flight history → PDX 07:25 PHL 15:38 14% 5% 0.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688 7h 11m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780 1h 17m Houston IAH 07:33 → PHL 11:50UA 2203 8h 42m 91% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 9h 04m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 8h 54m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575 7h 12m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 09:02 → PHL 17:14UA 2824 8h 59m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:50 → SEA 18:59DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Seattle SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 +1DL 1114 8h 39m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703 7h 11m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon 58m Seattle SEA 21:31 → PHL 05:42 +1AS 371 7h 04m 53% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON