Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1108 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1108 PDX 05:50 → PHX 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1625 PDX 17:55 → PHX 20:36 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1108 Southwest	PDX 05:50	PHX 08:30	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2658 American Flight history →	PDX 05:20	PHX 08:00	10%	5%	0.8%	90%
AS 1349 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	PHX 09:49	10%	3%	1.0%	88%
AS 1350 Alaska	PDX 09:04	PHX 11:45	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3300 Southwest	PDX 11:05	PHX 13:45	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 716 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:28	PHX 17:09	19%	5%	0.8%	90%
AS 746 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:51	PHX 13:32	21%	4%	0.8%	78%
AS 723 Alaska	PDX 17:48	PHX 20:29	23%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 3324 Southwest	PDX 16:40	PHX 19:21	30%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2360 Southwest	PDX 19:35	PHX 22:16	32%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 2986 American Flight history →	PDX 15:31	PHX 18:12	33%	12%	0.7%	60%
AA 1625 American	PDX 17:55	PHX 20:36	34%	13%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON