tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3409 at 22:01, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3409 SkyWest PDX 22:01 PSC 23:08 15% 6% 1.2% no record
AS 2475 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 14:31 PSC 15:22 17% 4% 0.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 2h 59m Seattle SEA 08:52 → PSC 09:53AS 2195 · flown by Horizon 4h 53m 100% 89%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 13:48 → SEA 14:43AS 2205 · flown by Horizon 1h 45m Seattle SEA 16:28 → PSC 17:27AS 2367 · flown by Horizon 3h 39m 100% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon 2h 11m Seattle SEA 22:44 → PSC 23:43AS 2403 · flown by Horizon 4h 05m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Seattle SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:50 → SEA 18:59DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m Seattle SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest 6h 03m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712 6h 40m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:48 → SEA 12:07DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 1h 33m Seattle SEA 13:40 → PSC 14:54DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest 4h 06m 94% 70%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:07AS 376 2h 13m Seattle SEA 11:20 → PSC 12:19AS 2306 · flown by Horizon 4h 10m 100% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:10 → SEA 08:06AS 427 46m Seattle SEA 08:52 → PSC 09:53AS 2195 · flown by Horizon 2h 43m 61% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON