tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 485 at 17:58, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 485 Alaska PDX 17:58 RNO 19:33 14% 4% 0.9% no record
AS 2206 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 15:01 RNO 16:30 10% 2% 0.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 24m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 7h 28m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00DL 2947 3h 58m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 7h 55m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 7h 39m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 3h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 33m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 08:13 → RNO 09:27UA 5394 · flown by SkyWest 4h 12m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 22m Phoenix PHX 10:22 → RNO 12:22AA 1437 7h 02m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON