Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3719 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3719 PDX 07:45 → SAN 10:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 667 PDX 17:35 → SAN 20:11 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3719 Southwest	PDX 07:45	SAN 10:20	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 577 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:32	SAN 10:05	22%	4%	1.0%	80%
AS 721 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:03	SAN 11:38	23%	4%	1.2%	80%
AS 1371 Alaska	PDX 13:49	SAN 16:25	27%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 1320 Alaska	PDX 14:53	SAN 17:29	28%	6%	1.1%	no record
AS 1394 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:46	SAN 13:27	30%	4%	1.0%	84%worse than usual
WN 3290 Southwest	PDX 16:10	SAN 18:48	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 667 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:35	SAN 20:11	32%	7%	1.1%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON