tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 2317 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 10:47 SBA 13:05 7% 0% 2.3% 93%
AS 2029 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 17:48 SBA 20:04 9% 4% 1.1% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 1h 47m Seattle SEA 07:40 → SBA 10:14AS 2142 · flown by Horizon 5h 14m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 2h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 18m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 2h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:52AA 2928 6h 32m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 55m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 8h 02m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:35 → SAN 20:11AS 667 2h 21m San Diego SAN 22:32 → SBA 23:44AS 2175 · flown by Horizon 6h 09m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 6h 37m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 59m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 81% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON