Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3328 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3328 PDX 06:25 → SJC 08:24 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3329 PDX 21:10 → SJC 23:10 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3328 Southwest	PDX 06:25	SJC 08:24	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3341 SkyWest	PDX 21:04	SJC 23:08	11%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 1413 Alaska	PDX 10:36	SJC 12:32	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1921 Southwest	PDX 13:20	SJC 15:18	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 345 Alaska	PDX 17:50	SJC 19:47	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3329 Southwest	PDX 21:10	SJC 23:10	27%	11%	0.7%	no record
AS 2080 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:15	SJC 09:09	4%	2%	3.8%	96%
AS 2113 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:40	SJC 19:32	19%	3%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON