Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1270 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1270 PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 1238 PDX 19:20 → SLC 22:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1270 Delta Flight history →	PDX 05:45	SLC 08:33	4%	2%	0.8%	98%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	PDX 09:45	SLC 12:33	8%	3%	0.8%	92%
AS 3355 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:32	SLC 13:33	11%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:15	SLC 16:07	12%	4%	0.8%	88%
OO 3288 SkyWest	PDX 14:33	SLC 17:34	16%	6%	1.5%	no record
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:14	SLC 20:06	19%	7%	1.7%	88%
AS 730 Alaska	PDX 20:08	SLC 23:04	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 1238 Delta Flight history →	PDX 19:20	SLC 22:13	20%	9%	1.2%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON