Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3331 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3331 PDX 05:00 → SMF 06:42 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1719 PDX 22:05 → SMF 23:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3331 Southwest	PDX 05:00	SMF 06:42	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3374 SkyWest	PDX 08:02	SMF 09:48	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 653 Alaska	PDX 10:30	SMF 12:10	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3971 Southwest	PDX 11:15	SMF 12:57	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 433 Alaska	PDX 14:48	SMF 16:28	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 793 Alaska	PDX 17:48	SMF 19:29	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3656 Southwest	PDX 15:15	SMF 16:58	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1719 Southwest	PDX 22:05	SMF 23:44	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 2399 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 11:00	SMF 12:33	9%	1%	0.6%	91%
AS 2405 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:32	SMF 16:06	12%	0%	1.9%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON