tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 3h 15m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → STL 10:42DL 1289 8h 09m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 5h 48m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 3h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 50m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:16UA 780 1h 44m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 7h 59m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:13 → IAH 13:30UA 462 2h 01m Houston IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa 8h 29m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 2h 24m Seattle SEA 09:41 → STL 15:26AS 647 7h 07m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:19DL 539 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 10h 16m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21UA 1927 50m Houston IAH 20:11 → STL 22:18UA 1528 7h 16m 74% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON