tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3311 at 17:33, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3311 SkyWest PDX 17:33 TUS 20:32 14% 7% 0.8% no record
AS 2215 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 07:00 TUS 09:51 4% 0% 0.0% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 4h 39m 90% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 2h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 59m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 32m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Seattle SEA 08:25 → TUS 11:47DL 3680 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:25 → LAX 15:47DL 2766 3h 34m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 10:09 → TUS 12:30UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 7h 15m 99% 67%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 3h 02m Seattle SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648 7h 12m 100% 67%
UnitedDetails → PDX 13:02 → IAH 19:21UA 1927 1h 11m Houston IAH 20:32 → TUS 21:27UA 1976 8h 25m 89% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON