Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4755 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–49%.

Safest bet that day YX 4755 PHL 06:59 → ATL 09:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1147 PHL 17:38 → ATL 20:00 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4755 Republic	PHL 06:59	ATL 09:25	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1269 Delta Flight history →	PHL 05:15	ATL 07:19	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 1152 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:25	ATL 08:28	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 1795 Delta	PHL 10:44	ATL 12:56	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1180 Delta Flight history →	PHL 08:05	ATL 10:11	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 841 American	PHL 09:32	ATL 11:52	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:02	ATL 14:05	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1325 American	PHL 11:05	ATL 13:25	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	PHL 16:08	ATL 18:32	18%	6%	0.8%	70%
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	PHL 14:32	ATL 16:40	18%	6%	0.8%	81%
F9 2297 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:30	ATL 11:00	23%	8%	0.9%	71%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:17	ATL 19:29	27%	7%	0.9%	62%
AA 3041 American Flight history →	PHL 15:44	ATL 18:06	28%	11%	0.8%	69%
AA 443 American Flight history →	PHL 21:58	ATL 00:15	30%	9%	0.9%	77%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	PHL 19:25	ATL 21:39	30%	8%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
F9 1101 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:32	ATL 15:50	36%	12%	1.2%	60%
AA 2983 American Flight history →	PHL 19:31	ATL 21:52	38%	13%	0.8%	62%
F9 1147 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:38	ATL 20:00	49%	19%	1.2%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON