Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 801 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 801 PHL 08:48 → AUS 11:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1314 PHL 17:39 → AUS 20:30 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 801 American	PHL 08:48	AUS 11:50	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1069 American	PHL 12:50	AUS 15:55	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1314 American Flight history →	PHL 17:39	AUS 20:30	38%	11%	0.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	5h 12m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 38m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	54m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	5h 20m	87%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON