Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3195 at 22:32, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3195 PHL 22:32 → BDL 23:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3195 American Flight history →	PHL 22:32	BDL 23:54	21%	8%	0.7%	68%
AA 5997 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:00	BDL 10:22	9%	0%	0.0%	91%
AA 6035 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 12:51	BDL 14:11	15%	6%	1.5%	85%
AA 5857 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:45	BDL 19:06	33%	14%	6.0%	67%
AA 6107 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 19:44	BDL 21:22	41%	13%	6.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON