Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5054 PSA	PHL 11:00	BHM 12:30	23%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 5357 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:06	BHM 21:36	30%	12%	1.0%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100	4h 10m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 45m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 19m	98%	82%
American Details →	PHL 16:13 → CLT 17:51AA 3012	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 21:01 → BHM 21:32AA 5205 · flown by PSA	6h 19m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 15:51 → BHM 16:55DL 4647 · flown by Endeavor	5h 19m	93%	75%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → BHM 12:46UA 4380 · flown by GoJet	7h 46m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	6h 45m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55DL 1132	6h 53m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:23UA 2665	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:34UA 4447 · flown by GoJet	5h 26m	59%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON