Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4858 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4858 PHL 05:45 → BNA 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1989 PHL 19:35 → BNA 20:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4858 Southwest	PHL 05:45	BNA 06:55	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1320 American	PHL 09:35	BNA 10:50	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5358 PSA	PHL 07:00	BNA 08:16	13%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 804 American	PHL 13:27	BNA 14:43	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 2866 Southwest	PHL 13:45	BNA 14:57	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
OH 5340 PSA	PHL 17:53	BNA 19:15	24%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 1280 American Flight history →	PHL 16:03	BNA 17:15	27%	8%	0.8%	74%
AA 2277 American Flight history →	PHL 21:30	BNA 22:46	28%	8%	1.0%	62%
WN 3015 Southwest	PHL 20:30	BNA 21:42	30%	12%	0.7%	no record
F9 1989 Frontier	PHL 19:35	BNA 20:55	35%	16%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON