Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5740 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 5740 PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1147 PHL 19:18 → BOS 20:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5740 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 06:00	BOS 07:30	3%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 10:00	BOS 11:27	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 2743 American	PHL 07:05	BOS 08:28	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1416 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	BOS 12:03	10%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 2685 American	PHL 08:59	BOS 10:18	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 1160 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 10:47	BOS 12:12	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
YX 4708 Republic	PHL 16:43	BOS 18:30	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 15:20	BOS 16:47	15%	6%	0.7%	72%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 19:55	BOS 21:49	18%	7%	0.9%	70%
AA 3186 American	PHL 13:39	BOS 14:54	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
B6 1860 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 15:53	BOS 17:18	27%	12%	0.8%	83%
AA 834 American	PHL 21:50	BOS 23:13	28%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 2340 American	PHL 18:57	BOS 20:41	28%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 3073 American Flight history →	PHL 15:20	BOS 16:42	31%	12%	0.8%	40%
B6 560 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 18:44	BOS 20:09	32%	15%	0.8%	56%
AA 2404 American	PHL 20:10	BOS 21:34	33%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 1147 American Flight history →	PHL 19:18	BOS 20:36	35%	13%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON