Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: PT 5933 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day PT 5933 PHL 08:59 → BUF 10:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5870 PHL 17:51 → BUF 19:26 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5933 Piedmont	PHL 08:59	BUF 10:37	15%	3%	1.1%	no record
PT 5800 Piedmont	PHL 11:06	BUF 12:29	18%	3%	1.2%	no record
PT 5914 Piedmont	PHL 13:09	BUF 14:45	18%	5%	1.3%	no record
PT 5939 Piedmont	PHL 23:31	BUF 00:54	20%	5%	2.3%	no record
PT 5836 Piedmont	PHL 15:20	BUF 16:43	22%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 17:51	BUF 19:26	26%	7%	1.4%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON