Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2447 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2447 PHL 10:30 → CHS 12:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 1934 PHL 16:15 → CHS 18:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2447 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	CHS 12:29	15%	5%	0.9%	72%
AA 1526 American Flight history →	PHL 08:51	CHS 10:47	15%	4%	1.0%	84%
AA 1193 American	PHL 22:03	CHS 00:04	28%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 1934 American Flight history →	PHL 16:15	CHS 18:07	31%	8%	1.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON