Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 847 at 10:34 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 847 PHL 10:34 → CLT 12:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 4353 PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:46 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 847 American Flight history →	PHL 10:34	CLT 12:22	14%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 2767 American	PHL 08:28	CLT 10:10	14%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 793 American Flight history →	PHL 13:49	CLT 15:45	17%	6%	0.9%	81%
AA 1859 American Flight history →	PHL 12:16	CLT 13:58	19%	6%	0.9%	76%
F9 2387 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:00	CLT 09:56	23%	9%	2.0%	80%
AA 3012 American Flight history →	PHL 16:13	CLT 17:51	30%	8%	1.0%	81%worse than usual
AA 2189 American	PHL 19:52	CLT 21:58	32%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 2074 American	PHL 17:00	CLT 18:43	33%	9%	1.2%	no record
F9 4353 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:46	36%	15%	1.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON