Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2253 at 10:28 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2253 PHL 10:28 → CMH 12:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 320 PHL 19:05 → CMH 20:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2253 American	PHL 10:28	CMH 12:08	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:21	CMH 10:10	11%	4%	1.3%	88%
AA 4361 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 21:50	CMH 23:41	12%	6%	1.1%	81%
AA 3241 American Flight history →	PHL 13:53	CMH 15:36	16%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 2592 American	PHL 16:08	CMH 17:49	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 320 American	PHL 19:05	CMH 20:46	31%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON