Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4779 at 13:08 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 4779 PHL 13:08 → CVG 15:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5337 PHL 17:57 → CVG 20:01 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4779 Republic	PHL 13:08	CVG 15:15	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5623 PSA	PHL 08:27	CVG 10:24	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
OH 5436 PSA	PHL 10:37	CVG 12:35	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
OH 5319 PSA	PHL 15:55	CVG 17:55	29%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 5583 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:40	CVG 21:53	32%	9%	1.6%	68%
OH 5337 PSA	PHL 17:57	CVG 20:01	34%	9%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON