Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4437 Southwest	PHL 19:15	DAL 21:47	42%	12%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	7h 09m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	7h 58m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 52m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 17m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON