Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 5064 at 19:37, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:37	DAY 21:25	26%	12%	2.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108	5h 15m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763	6h 59m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:17 → DAY 17:50DL 3088	5h 48m	98%	78%
American Details →	PHL 10:34 → CLT 12:22AA 847	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 16:17 → DAY 17:53AA 5321 · flown by PSA	7h 19m	97%	77%
American Details →	PHL 15:37 → DCA 16:50AA 5363 · flown by PSA	2h 44m Washington	DCA 19:34 → DAY 21:23AA 5131 · flown by PSA	5h 46m	100%	74%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA	6h 48m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167	6h 34m	90%	72%
American Details →	PHL 16:13 → CLT 17:51AA 3012	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → DAY 22:09AA 5174 · flown by PSA	5h 56m	95%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 16:13 → CLT 17:51AA 3012	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA	4h 24m	72%	53%
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44AA 5245 · flown by PSA	7h 22m	73%	49%
United Details →	PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:23UA 2665	57m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet	4h 41m	42%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON