tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4640 Republic PHL 19:53 DCA 21:31 25% 8% 2.9% no record
AA 5363 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 15:37 DCA 16:50 30% 11% 2.0% 97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30DL 5740 · flown by Republic 1h 45m Boston BOS 09:15 → DCA 11:07DL 5693 · flown by Republic 5h 07m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 6h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 2h 12m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 18m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 10:00 → BOS 11:27DL 5845 · flown by Republic 2h 53m Boston BOS 14:20 → DCA 16:17DL 5682 · flown by Republic 6h 17m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 2h 27m Chicago ORD 09:57 → DCA 13:00UA 1904 7h 00m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:44 → BUF 10:17AA 5925 · flown by Piedmont 1h 39m Buffalo BUF 11:56 → DCA 13:32AA 4647 · flown by Republic 4h 48m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 6h 21m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:21 → CMH 10:10AA 5640 · flown by PSA 2h 14m Columbus CMH 12:24 → DCA 14:00AA 4700 · flown by Republic 5h 39m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → PHL 15:53 → BOS 17:18B6 1860 48m Boston BOS 18:06 → DCA 20:04B6 2255 4h 11m 56% 34%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:13 → CLT 17:51AA 3012 47m Charlotte CLT 18:38 → DCA 20:20AA 527 4h 07m 50% 31%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306 54m Miami MIA 20:21 → DCA 22:59AA 2897 6h 34m 51% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON