Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3335 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 3335 PHL 05:20 → DEN 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1579 PHL 17:20 → DEN 19:26 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3335 Southwest	PHL 05:20	DEN 07:22	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1423 United	PHL 07:51	DEN 09:57	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1537 United Flight history →	PHL 10:00	DEN 12:01	13%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 1313 American Flight history →	PHL 09:31	DEN 11:29	15%	4%	0.7%	78%
WN 4040 Southwest	PHL 12:15	DEN 14:18	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2082 American	PHL 11:23	DEN 13:25	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2878 American	PHL 20:04	DEN 22:06	34%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	PHL 16:14	DEN 18:25	37%	10%	0.8%	60%
AA 3158 American Flight history →	PHL 17:30	DEN 19:45	42%	11%	0.9%	64%
WN 1579 Southwest	PHL 17:20	DEN 19:26	43%	14%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 37m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	5h 54m	89%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON