Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1751 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1751 PHL 06:43 → DFW 09:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2533 PHL 17:45 → DFW 20:22 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1751 American Flight history →	PHL 06:43	DFW 09:28	10%	4%	1.3%	92%
AA 583 American Flight history →	PHL 07:00	DFW 09:37	10%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 3307 American	PHL 08:21	DFW 10:58	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 241 American	PHL 11:53	DFW 14:32	16%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 3326 American Flight history →	PHL 10:44	DFW 13:21	17%	6%	1.0%	76%
F9 3985 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:54	DFW 08:34	21%	8%	2.2%	73%
AA 415 American Flight history →	PHL 12:52	DFW 15:31	23%	8%	1.1%	73%
AA 402 American Flight history →	PHL 15:00	DFW 17:50	28%	9%	1.2%	68%
AA 2356 American Flight history →	PHL 16:22	DFW 19:09	30%	9%	1.1%	69%
AA 1115 American Flight history →	PHL 20:22	DFW 23:00	34%	10%	1.3%	69%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	PHL 17:45	DFW 20:22	38%	10%	1.3%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	47m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 14m	90%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON