Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5478 at 10:38 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 5478 PHL 10:38 → DSM 12:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest OH 5219 PHL 19:34 → DSM 21:33 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:38	DSM 12:35	15%	6%	1.0%	76%
G4 443 Allegiant	PHL 10:52	DSM 12:43	17%	7%	1.5%	no record
OH 5219 PSA	PHL 19:34	DSM 21:33	27%	12%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON