Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1540 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1540 PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1391 PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1540 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:10	DTW 07:48	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
YX 4392 Republic	PHL 10:30	DTW 12:27	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	PHL 09:46	DTW 11:31	10%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 09:06	DTW 11:00	10%	4%	1.4%	85%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:36	DTW 14:20	13%	4%	0.8%	92%
AA 5418 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:12	DTW 00:07	17%	7%	2.3%	74%
OH 5367 PSA	PHL 17:04	DTW 18:53	22%	7%	1.7%	no record
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	PHL 20:10	DTW 22:15	23%	7%	0.8%	74%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:28	DTW 19:15	27%	6%	0.8%	70%
AA 5876 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:20	DTW 10:27	5%	0%	0.0%	95%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON