tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 6h 33m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 49m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 53m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494 7h 14m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 7h 20m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:35UA 2038 2h 30m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:01UA 4043 · flown by Mesa 7h 57m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → PHL 12:16 → CLT 13:58AA 1859 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 17:27 → ECP 18:13AA 5297 · flown by PSA 6h 57m 94% 69%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:10 → ECP 21:27AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 7h 27m 82% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494 4h 29m 75% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON