Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5341 PSA	PHL 10:31	GRR 12:36	16%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 5493 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 21:50	GRR 23:58	25%	11%	3.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → GRR 11:44DL 2547	6h 29m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 08:25 → GRR 10:53DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	95%	85%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297	6h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555	6h 50m	98%	79%
United Details →	PHL 09:31 → ORD 10:49UA 1811	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → GRR 14:55UA 4598 · flown by GoJet	5h 24m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	7h 19m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	3h 40m Detroit	DTW 22:55 → GRR 23:57DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	5h 12m	90%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 18:57 → MSP 20:53DL 2594	47m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → GRR 23:59DL 1711	5h 02m	67%	50%
American Details →	PHL 19:54 → ORD 21:34AA 490	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 22:47 → GRR 00:57 +1AA 3793 · flown by Envoy	5h 03m	66%	40%
United Details →	PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:23UA 2665	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 21:47 → GRR 23:49UA 1819	4h 41m	72%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON