Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 584 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 584 PHL 06:00 → IAH 08:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 889 PHL 21:13 → IAH 23:48 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 584 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	IAH 08:35	10%	3%	0.9%	95%
UA 2038 United Flight history →	PHL 13:04	IAH 15:35	18%	6%	0.8%	87%
AA 836 American	PHL 10:42	IAH 13:19	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 840 American	PHL 08:50	IAH 11:30	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2474 United Flight history →	PHL 18:19	IAH 21:04	24%	10%	0.8%	85%
AA 2486 American	PHL 13:02	IAH 15:39	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 889 American Flight history →	PHL 21:13	IAH 23:48	29%	11%	1.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON