Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1791 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1791 PHL 08:31 → JAX 10:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3214 PHL 17:07 → JAX 19:38 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1791 American Flight history →	PHL 08:31	JAX 10:50	10%	4%	0.7%	81%
F9 2861 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:55	JAX 08:18	13%	6%	1.3%	65%
OH 5047 PSA	PHL 12:59	JAX 15:19	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1970 American Flight history →	PHL 18:14	JAX 20:35	25%	9%	0.9%	77%
AA 3214 American	PHL 17:07	JAX 19:38	26%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON