Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3340 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 3340 PHL 07:30 → MCO 09:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1673 PHL 20:04 → MCO 22:38 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3340 Southwest	PHL 07:30	MCO 09:59	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1634 American	PHL 07:14	MCO 09:46	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2084 American Flight history →	PHL 08:44	MCO 11:16	15%	4%	0.9%	78%
F9 2415 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:25	MCO 07:55	17%	6%	1.3%	80%
F9 1807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:10	MCO 10:52	19%	8%	1.4%	78%
AA 3268 American Flight history →	PHL 11:08	MCO 13:41	21%	7%	1.2%	78%
F9 2507 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:11	MCO 12:47	27%	10%	1.3%	70%
AA 3153 American Flight history →	PHL 12:53	MCO 15:23	27%	8%	2.3%	88%worse than usual
AA 2502 American Flight history →	PHL 14:03	MCO 16:36	33%	11%	1.1%	80%worse than usual
AA 646 American Flight history →	PHL 18:07	MCO 20:54	34%	12%	1.2%	70%
AA 3262 American Flight history →	PHL 16:04	MCO 18:38	36%	13%	1.2%	54%
WN 2390 Southwest	PHL 18:20	MCO 20:52	37%	16%	0.7%	no record
F9 2505 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 18:06	MCO 21:01	38%	17%	1.9%	63%
AA 1673 American Flight history →	PHL 20:04	MCO 22:38	40%	13%	1.2%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON