Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1426 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1426 PHL 06:45 → MDW 07:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3364 PHL 20:08 → MDW 21:21 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1426 Southwest	PHL 06:45	MDW 07:56	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3362 Southwest	PHL 11:45	MDW 12:56	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 3343 Southwest	PHL 14:45	MDW 15:56	30%	11%	6.4%	no record
WN 2530 Southwest	PHL 16:45	MDW 17:56	33%	10%	4.2%	no record
WN 3364 Southwest	PHL 20:08	MDW 21:21	40%	13%	5.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON