Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5040 at 10:37 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:37	MEM 12:19	15%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:42	MEM 22:15	26%	11%	1.3%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	59m Detroit	DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:49DL 1627	4h 39m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	7h 07m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071	5h 12m	98%	85%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	7h 09m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	97%	80%
United Details →	PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:35UA 2038	2h 30m Houston	IAH 18:05 → MEM 19:54UA 6167 · flown by Mesa	7h 50m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	50m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	4h 33m	66%	51%
American Details →	PHL 19:54 → ORD 21:34AA 490	56m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	5h 24m	50%	30%
United Details →	PHL 19:08 → ORD 20:23UA 2665	57m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	5h 13m	42%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON