Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1252 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 1252 PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1203 PHL 17:25 → MIA 20:26 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1252 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	MIA 08:56	11%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 1857 American	PHL 07:00	MIA 09:47	18%	5%	2.5%	no record
AA 2184 American Flight history →	PHL 08:15	MIA 11:12	20%	4%	1.8%	91%worse than usual
F9 4443 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:27	MIA 10:17	26%	8%	2.8%	91%worse than usual
AA 1989 American	PHL 11:24	MIA 14:10	33%	9%	6.6%	no record
AA 2936 American Flight history →	PHL 21:55	MIA 00:52	40%	9%	1.1%	61%
AA 3306 American Flight history →	PHL 16:25	MIA 19:27	42%	13%	1.7%	75%worse than usual
AA 3061 American	PHL 14:47	MIA 17:46	47%	16%	4.1%	no record
AA 2132 American	PHL 19:43	MIA 22:29	47%	14%	1.7%	no record
F9 1203 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:25	MIA 20:26	49%	18%	2.0%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON