Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4790 at 11:24 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 4790 PHL 11:24 → MSN 12:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5335 PHL 16:16 → MSN 17:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4790 Republic	PHL 11:24	MSN 12:55	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 5512 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 22:29	MSN 23:55	26%	12%	2.4%	70%
OH 5335 PSA	PHL 16:16	MSN 17:45	27%	12%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON