Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2354 at 08:42 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2354 PHL 08:42 → MSY 10:54 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 549 PHL 19:52 → MSY 22:16 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2354 American	PHL 08:42	MSY 10:54	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1701 American	PHL 12:55	MSY 15:06	24%	7%	1.9%	no record
AA 549 American	PHL 19:52	MSY 22:16	32%	12%	1.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	54m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	4h 32m	87%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	57m Atlanta	ATL 15:02 → MSY 15:44DL 8858	4h 42m	85%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON