Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4674 at 08:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day YX 4674 PHL 08:47 → MYR 10:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5923 PHL 17:11 → MYR 19:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4674 Republic	PHL 08:47	MYR 10:52	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
PT 5863 Piedmont	PHL 12:55	MYR 14:44	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
F9 3271 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:01	MYR 08:51	17%	8%	1.0%	70%
PT 6081 Piedmont	PHL 20:54	MYR 22:43	24%	11%	2.4%	no record
PT 5923 Piedmont	PHL 17:11	MYR 19:03	24%	9%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON