Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5339 PSA	PHL 11:00	OMA 13:11	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 5545 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:07	OMA 20:23	28%	11%	1.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:46DL 1125	7h 21m	99%	86%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	5h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	47m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	4h 38m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 46m	98%	76%
American Details →	PHL 10:34 → CLT 12:22AA 847	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 15:06 → OMA 16:48AA 2278	7h 14m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	8h 41m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	63%	48%
Delta Details →	PHL 19:25 → ATL 21:39DL 1329	49m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	5h 24m	58%	42%
United Details →	PHL 13:31 → ORD 14:55UA 2784	52m Chicago	ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28UA 2207	4h 57m	58%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON