Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 660 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 660 PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2041 PHL 17:49 → ORD 19:06 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 660 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ORD 07:30	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	PHL 09:31	ORD 10:49	13%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 3074 American Flight history →	PHL 07:42	ORD 09:10	13%	5%	1.4%	82%
AA 2095 American Flight history →	PHL 08:58	ORD 10:38	13%	6%	1.7%	81%
AA 865 American	PHL 10:38	ORD 11:55	20%	8%	2.0%	no record
UA 2207 United Flight history →	PHL 11:38	ORD 13:06	20%	8%	0.9%	81%
AA 1854 American Flight history →	PHL 12:35	ORD 13:51	30%	12%	4.1%	79%
AA 372 American	PHL 22:26	ORD 00:04	30%	13%	1.9%	no record
UA 2784 United Flight history →	PHL 13:31	ORD 14:55	33%	16%	1.4%	76%
AA 2668 American	PHL 22:32	ORD 23:57	34%	16%	1.9%	no record
F9 2111 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:50	ORD 13:10	35%	12%	4.1%	60%
AA 470 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	ORD 17:29	41%	21%	4.1%	64%
AA 821 American	PHL 14:47	ORD 16:14	41%	22%	4.0%	no record
AA 490 American Flight history →	PHL 19:54	ORD 21:34	45%	25%	2.2%	60%
UA 308 United Flight history →	PHL 17:00	ORD 18:33	50%	22%	1.3%	63%worse than usual
UA 2665 United Flight history →	PHL 19:08	ORD 20:23	54%	28%	1.5%	55%
AA 2041 American	PHL 17:49	ORD 19:06	58%	25%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON