Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1787 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 17:46	PDX 20:37	27%	7%	1.0%	65%
AA 2245 American	PHL 20:07	PDX 23:36	27%	9%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	8h 01m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:25DL 539	8h 10m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 33m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 26m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 59m	98%	81%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 08:48 → PDX 11:11UA 751	8h 11m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01DL 2092	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 13:37 → PDX 14:48DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	10h 43m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 54m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	49m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	7h 20m	65%	50%
American Details →	PHL 16:13 → CLT 17:51AA 3012	52m Charlotte	CLT 18:43 → PDX 21:18AA 2873	8h 05m	64%	43%
American Details →	PHL 17:30 → PHX 19:37AA 1984	48m Phoenix	PHX 20:25 → PDX 23:08AA 561	8h 38m	49%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON