Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4796 at 17:51 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day YX 4796 PHL 17:51 → PIT 19:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2901 PHL 19:25 → PIT 20:47 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4796 Republic	PHL 17:51	PIT 19:28	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5132 PSA	PHL 12:49	PIT 14:15	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2731 American	PHL 15:13	PIT 16:35	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 3164 American	PHL 22:35	PIT 23:55	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2901 American Flight history →	PHL 19:25	PIT 20:47	30%	10%	0.7%	66%
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 17:40	PIT 19:12	31%	11%	9.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON