tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5511 PSA PHL 10:46 PNS 12:35 18% 7% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 6h 36m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640 5h 36m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:35UA 2038 2h 37m Houston IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa 7h 54m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 01m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 6h 32m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086 6h 39m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43DL 2807 7h 26m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 2h 31m Charlotte CLT 18:16 → PNS 19:10AA 5429 · flown by PSA 6h 21m 97% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON