Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5608 at 09:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day OH 5608 PHL 09:02 → PVD 10:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3142 PHL 20:49 → PVD 22:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5608 PSA	PHL 09:02	PVD 10:23	11%	4%	1.6%	no record
OH 5624 PSA	PHL 13:02	PVD 14:23	20%	7%	1.7%	no record
OH 5595 PSA	PHL 21:52	PVD 23:13	21%	11%	2.6%	no record
OH 5135 PSA	PHL 15:36	PVD 16:57	23%	11%	1.7%	no record
OH 5636 PSA	PHL 17:48	PVD 19:18	26%	11%	2.0%	no record
AA 3142 American	PHL 20:49	PVD 22:15	28%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON