Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: F9 2059 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day F9 2059 PHL 07:52 → RDU 09:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 873 PHL 20:18 → RDU 21:52 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2059 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:52	RDU 09:29	14%	7%	1.3%	85%
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 08:20	RDU 09:53	14%	4%	0.8%	65%
AA 3152 American	PHL 10:35	RDU 12:09	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
YX 4800 Republic	PHL 17:03	RDU 18:41	16%	7%	1.2%	no record
OH 5663 PSA	PHL 13:11	RDU 14:53	22%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 1441 American Flight history →	PHL 15:20	RDU 16:53	23%	11%	1.1%	60%
AA 2692 American	PHL 22:24	RDU 23:58	27%	11%	1.3%	no record
F9 1517 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 21:09	RDU 22:43	30%	16%	1.8%	79%
AA 873 American	PHL 20:18	RDU 21:52	33%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON