Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5089 PHL 13:53 → RIC 15:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5018 PHL 15:52 → RIC 17:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5089 PSA	PHL 13:53	RIC 15:12	16%	8%	0.8%	no record
OH 5018 PSA	PHL 15:52	RIC 17:11	22%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 5843 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:12	RIC 14:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
AA 5846 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:03	RIC 10:27	12%	5%	0.0%	88%
AA 5894 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:05	RIC 10:29	23%	13%	0.0%	77%
AA 5895 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 15:40	RIC 17:03	29%	11%	2.8%	71%
AA 5964 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 20:31	RIC 21:56	32%	17%	4.2%	68%
AA 5969 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 18:30	RIC 19:57	36%	29%	1.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON