Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2365 at 09:18 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2365 PHL 09:18 → RSW 12:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest F9 1577 PHL 08:43 → RSW 11:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2365 American Flight history →	PHL 09:18	RSW 12:17	17%	5%	1.9%	73%
AA 507 American	PHL 11:19	RSW 14:21	18%	7%	2.1%	no record
AA 2439 American Flight history →	PHL 14:37	RSW 17:37	27%	11%	2.2%	68%
F9 2025 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:39	RSW 16:42	27%	14%	2.3%	63%
F9 1577 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:43	RSW 11:45	28%	9%	2.0%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	46m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089	4h 28m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON