tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1621 American Flight history → PHL 08:39 SAN 11:20 21% 5% 0.8% 90%worse than usual
AA 3245 American Flight history → PHL 18:12 SAN 21:09 38% 11% 0.9% 77%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 7h 58m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 16m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01DL 2092 2h 13m Seattle SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572 11h 11m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:36DL 843 9h 21m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 43m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 57m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 7h 17m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968 2h 19m Detroit DTW 13:50 → SAN 15:33DL 761 8h 47m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → IAH 08:35UA 584 3h 25m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 10h 21m 100% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHL 18:57 → MSP 20:53DL 2594 54m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 7h 33m 71% 52%
UnitedDetails → PHL 18:30 → SFO 21:40UA 1575 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → SAN 00:50 +1UA 1389 9h 20m 73% 47%
UnitedDetails → PHL 16:14 → DEN 18:25UA 2644 55m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 32m 56% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON